Uncertainty Sketch

This month’s meeting was a workshop: Communicating Uncertainty, Caveats and Assumptions to Policy Makers. Presentations and case studies focused on these communication challenges in applied research, especially when working with policy colleagues. Dave Skirvin (ADAS) opened the session, introducing the idea of building a shared toolbox of strategies from the group’s collective experience. Four case studies were presented followed by breakout room and group discussions chaired by Ben Marchant (BGS).

Speakers were:

  • Katharine Preedy (BioSS)
  • Ewan McHenry (Woodland Trust)
  • Thomas Cornulier (BioSS)
  • Philipp Boersch-Supan (BTO):

Across the talks, several common themes emerged. The level of detail needed in communicating uncertainty, caveats and assumptions often depends on the audience, with policymakers juggling multiple priorities and limited time. Storytelling and narrative can be more effective than technical detail alone, but trust and transparency remain critical. A recurring tension exists between presenting complex analyses in full and making results interpretable to non-specialists. There was also discussion on how to represent uncertainty in increasingly complex visualisations, such as 3D surfaces and simulations. Taken together, the talks highlighted that uncertainty must be communicated in ways that are both meaningful and actionable, without oversimplifying or obscuring its implications.

In the follow on breakout room discussions, groups explored two key questions:

  1. What strategies work best for communicating uncertainty, assumptions, and caveats?
  2. What do we need to know from policy colleagues in order to ensure we are meeting their needs?

Future workshops were discussed. The general consensus in the room was that it would be useful if these aimed to provide opportunities to hear directly from policymakers, giving their unique perspective on how they interpret and act on uncertainty, caveats and assumptions.